According to experts, work from home, volatility in stock markets worldwide, and redemption pressures compelled investors to defer new investment plans.
Equity benchmarks extended their decline for the fourth straight session on Wednesday, with the Sensex falling 214.85 points after the Reserve Bank raised the key interest rate by 50 basis points. Continuous foreign fund outflows and surging crude oil prices also weighed on markets. The 30-share BSE benchmark dropped 214.85 points or 0.39 per cent to settle at 54,892.49.
Net sales growth for the quarter ended December (Q3FY20) was 4.5 per cent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis for companies that have declared their results so far, compared to an 8.4 per cent rise in the first half of the financial year. This indicates that there could be a further rise in days' sales of inventory.
The Indian markets have seen a good run in the last three months with the S&P BSE Sensex rising around 7 per cent and the Nifty50 moving up 7.5 per cent. The next leg of the market rally from here on, analysts suggest, will be driven by a growth in corporate earnings over the next few quarters. That said, they do not expect material / sharp downgrades to India Inc's earnings estimates despite headwinds for the economy.
Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty faced heavy drubbing on Thursday, falling over 1 per cent each, in tandem with weak global markets following the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and its hawkish stance. The 30-share BSE Sensex tanked 878.88 points or 1.40 per cent to settle at 61,799.03. During the day, it tumbled 962.3 points or 1.53 per cent to 61,715.61.
The outbreak of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and unprecedented lockdowns in China have roiled its equity market and also that of Hong Kong. After the crisis-hit Sri Lanka, China and Hong Kong are the worst-performing stock markets in Asia on a year-to-date basis.
Back home, the Nifty IT index - a gauge of the performance of the IT stocks on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) that has closely mirrored the performance of NASDAQ over the past few years - has lost nearly 2 per cent in CY23.
Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty ended on a mixed note on Wednesday as the euphoria about the Budget fizzled out, with investors going for profit-taking ahead of the Fed interest rate decision. The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex climbed 158.18 points or 0.27 per cent to settle at 59,708.08 after it trimmed most of the intra-day gains. During the day, it had zoomed 1,223.54 points or 2 per cent to 60,773.44.
Axis Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, dropping around 5 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, SBI, L&T, IndusInd Bank, Infosys and NTPC. On the other hand, HDFC Bank, HUL, Kotak Bank and Bharti Airtel were among the gainers.
Equity investors became richer by over Rs 5.77 lakh crore on Tuesday, helped by a rally in the broader market where the BSE benchmark jumped nearly 2 per cent. The BSE Sensex zoomed 934.23 points or 1.81 per cent to settle at 52,532.07. Driven by the rally in equities, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms jumped by Rs 5,77,006.83 crore to stand at Rs 2,40,63,930.50 crore. "Absence of fresh selling triggers in the domestic and global economy along with falling commodity prices relieved the heavily discounted equity market to showcase recovery.
An aggressive rate hike by the US Fed and the possibility of a recession can trigger a slide in these stocks, which will be a good opportunity to buy from a long-term perspective.
Over half, or 269 NSE 500 stocks, have given over 10-fold (10x) returns in the last two decades, finds a recent report by Goldman Sachs that analysed 10 major markets across emerging and developed markets (EM/DM) that covered 6,700 stocks. The report examined '10-baggers' - stocks that have generated at least 10x total returns within a rolling 5-year period over the past two decades. Some of the prominent ones that comprise these 269 stocks in the Indian context stocks that delivered over 10x total returns over a 5-year rolling period since 2000 as per Goldman Sachs includes Westlife Foodworld, Bharti Airtel, Adani Total Gas, Patanjali Foods, Larsen & Toubro, BEML, Blue Star, Shree Cement, Lupin, Godrej Industries, Astral, Adani Enterprises, Hindustan Petroleum and Deepak Fertilisers.
The K-shaped economic recovery in India from the pandemic slowdown shows in corporate results as well. The automobile sector, which represents big-ticket consumption, continues to do well and has increased its share in corporate revenues and profits while fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies that sell low-ticket consumer goods are struggling with poor sales and earnings growth. The share of the automobile sector, including makers of auto ancillaries, in corporate net sales rose to a 10-quarter high of 10.05 per cent during July-September 2023 (Q2FY24) from 8.94 per cent a year earlier and 9.75 per cent in Q1FY24.
A slowdown in hiring by India's top IT companies has resulted in a sharp increase in the industry's profit per employee in Q3FY23. The top four IT companies earned a net profit of 1.7 lakh per employee during October-December 2022, up 8.6 per cent from Rs 1.57 lakh in Q2FY23 and 16.3 per cent from a record low of Rs 1.47 lakh in Q1FY23. Earnings per employee in the third quarter were, however, still down 0.9 per cent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.
FPIs have turned net sellers in 2022 after being net buyers in the last three years.
Analysts agree China, Greece and US Fed developments need careful monitoring but India should gain, over time, from relative rise of the dollar and fall in commodity prices.
Less-than-expected rainfall and a poor spatial distribution, experts say, can rekindle fears of a rise in food and fuel inflation that can have an impact on the RBI's monetary policy. The fear of less than optimal rainfall due to El Nino this year, analysts believe, is the biggest short-term risk for the markets, which they said has not been fully priced in yet by them. Monsoon set over Kerala on June 08, a week later than its scheduled date.
The liquidity-fuelled rally will continue for some time, however, fundamentals are getting stretched.
Equity indices chalked up losses for the second straight session on Monday, in tandem with a bearish trend overseas as ratcheting up of hostilities in Ukraine and prospects of further rate hikes by the US Fed soured global risk sentiment. The rupee slipping to another all-time low against the US dollar amid foreign fund outflows added to the gloom, traders said. After tumbling over 800 points in intra-day trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex clawed back some lost ground to end 200.18 points or 0.34 per cent lower at 57,991.11.
Shares of Reliance Industries climbed around 3 per cent to hit a record closing high of Rs 2,060.65. SBI, ICICI Bank, Tech Mahindra, ITC and Kotak Bank were among the other winners. NSE Nifty advanced 82.85 points, or 0.74 per cent, to close at 11,215.45.
Market players said the sell-off was triggered by pessimism that the government may not be able to balance growth with macro-stability.
'Some risks to this market rally include inflation, erratic weather conditions, rising crude prices, slowing global growth and the resultant impact on domestic exports, escalation in geopolitical tensions.'
One looks upon the coming new year with foreboding as current wars in Ukraine and Gaza spill over and escalate and new ones erupt in incipient fault lines across the world, notes former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
Despite the large economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the markets have recovered sharply even though the performance among individual stocks has been quite polarised.
From the peak of $3.67 trillion in January, India's market cap has eroded by $676 billion amid rising bond yields and a record-breaking sell-off by overseas investors.
'The market will focus on the fact that India does have strong earnings growth this year.'
The broader NSE Nifty sank 177.65 points or 1.53 per cent to 11,419.25.
Jio is planning to win over 350 million 2G feature phone users by launching a smartphone at a fraction of the current cost.
Top gainers in the Sensex pack included Tata Steel, Kotak Bank, NTPC, HDFC twins, PowerGrid and ONGC, rising up to 4.60 per cent.
From the Sensex pack, Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank, Infosys, UltraTech Cement, NTPC, Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Consultancy Services, ICICI Bank and Maruti were among the major winners. Titan, Nestle, Larsen & Toubro, Axis Bank, ITC and Asian Paints were among the major laggards.
Top gainers in the Sensex pack were Tata Motors, ONGC, Yes Bank, IndusInd Bank and Vedanta -- rising up to 2.71 per cent.
Global events will continue to be in the limelight, besides domestic policy.
It may be a little early to cheer the recovery in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) space as a deceleration in discretionary demand, after the festival season, may offset fragile rural recovery, analysts have cautioned. "The overall demand environment for staples remains muted, while discretionary demand trends have seen some deceleration after the festival season. "We believe margins in staples have bottomed out, but we expect only a gradual uptick with the ongoing softening in raw material prices.
ITC was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying over 7 per cent, followed by Asian Paints, Hero MotoCorp, Maruti, Bajaj Auto, Sun Pharma, TCS and HCL Tech. On the other hand, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, Bajaj Finance, HDFC and L&T were among the laggards. NSE Nifty advanced 39.70 points, or 0.44 per cent, to 9,106.25.
Equity indices staged a pullback on Tuesday after three days of declines as investors scooped up IT, metal and consumption stocks amid a largely positive trend overseas. A recovery in the rupee added to the momentum, traders said. Overcoming a wobbly start, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 274.12 points or 0.45 per cent to settle at 61,418.96.
Metal and mining companies, such as Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Hindalco, and Coal India, have been among the top-performing sectors on the bourses in recent months. The S&P BSE Metal Index is up 13 per cent in the past three months, rallying 29 per cent in the past year, outperforming the broader market. For comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex has only seen a 1.7 per cent increase in the past three months, with a 15 per cent gain since the end of September last year.
In India, it is not easy to fight it out with the large banks which are nimble-footed and technology-savvy and are continuously innovating on the retail turf with newer products for customer acquisition.
Liquidity issues post the crisis at DHFL, progress of monsoon, rupee trajectory at the domestic level and oil prices are some factors that will keep markets choppy, analysts say.
'There are multiple ups and downs.' 'You should be able to withstand all that.' 'You need to have the temperament to run a marathon.'
All Sensex components ended in the red. SBI was the top loser, followed by ONGC, Axis Bank, ITC, Titan, Bajaj Auto, TCS and IndusInd Bank.
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